Climate change – is there hope?

First the bad news

Climate change news is hitting the headlines more and more every year. Unprecedented heat waves. This year at least 23 countries recorded temperatures of 50°C and above, including South Africa. Idai – the most destructive cyclone to hit our coastline in recorded history. Unprecedented wildfires in Australia. Unprecedented flooding in Europe. Snow outside Durban (yes, this too is caused by global warming). Droughts and a close shave with Day Zero.

At the same time, we are seeing a veritable flood of major reports all pointing to the unfolding disaster and urgent need to act. In 2018 and 2019 the IPCC, now in its 6th assessment cycle, released three Special Reports. In May 2021 we ran a virtual event, and put together a booklet, to answer the question, “What do the three IPCC reports say specifically about Africa?”

In August 2021 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the first of three major assessments: the Working Group I report on the state of the global climate. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said this report was nothing less than “a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable”. The Working Group II report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability is about to get approved by governments. It will not be pretty. Watch this space.

In June 2021 a joint report from two intergovernmental bodies – IPCC and IPBES – warned that biodiversity loss and climate change are both driven by human economic activities and mutually reinforce each other; another report offered ‘nature based solutions’. Many other reports came out last year around climate change.

There is no shortage of information. But will the world respond?

In November 2021 the COP26 (26th Conference of Parties) in Glasgow showed that the governments of the world are not yet ready to go all out to deal with climate change, or provide adequate support to those who need it most.

A glance back

A few decades ago climate change was still something not to look forward to in future, something to avoid. But no longer. We are in the middle of it.

There is no longer any doubt that the rapid warming recorded over the past 150 years is caused by humans. Our industrial-scale activities (mainly burning fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil; various industrial processes; agriculture; general degradation of natural ecosystems; deforestation; waste) produce many billions of tons worth of greenhouse gases each year, which trap heat in the atmosphere.

Photo: Gerhard Roux

Back in 1988, the United Nations felt sufficiently concerned about climate change that they established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (or IPCC) to collate, assess and report on the state of climate change science, the likely impact on nature and human societies, and what can be done about it. (Of course, climate change science goes back a lot further.)

In 1992, following the first IPCC Assessment Report, the UNFCCC was founded to act upon the findings. Have a look at the timeline to see what followed, including the 2011 COP in Durban. The 196 member nations, in the 2015 Paris Agreement, made a legally binding international treaty to limit global warming “to well below 2 °C … and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C”, compared to pre-industrial levels. The actual agreement is worth a read.

Unfortunately, countries did not respond in proportion either to the problem or to their own commitments, so in 2021 we find ourselves in a 1.1°C warmer world, hoping against odds to avoid 1.5 or 2°C (or even worse, higher levels) of global warming. Global warming is uneven, and some regions have already warmed on average by 3°C or more.

One IPCC report focuses on what an extra ½ a degree of warming would mean, and what we can do to avoid it. It reported that current climate policies put us on track for around 3°C of global warming by 2100, and even more in the next century. According to this report it was still just possible to keep global warming to below 1.5°C, but only with immediate, ambitious and rapid changes in all aspects of society.

This graph shows modelled carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per year. To avoid overshooting 1.5°C of global warming, emissions would have to start dropping immediately (green pathways) and reach net-zero by 2050. Net zero means CO2 is removed from the atmosphere at the same rate as it is produced. The orange pathways show that the longer we delay, the steeper the drop in emissions will need to be, and the more likely we are to exceed or temporarily overshoot 1.5°C. Also, the longer we wait, the more we will have to rely on negative emissions (actively removing CO2 from the atmosphere by some means). Wait even longer, and higher warming becomes unavoidable.

That was reported back in 2018. It is now 2021. COVID-19 struck. Greenhouse gas emissions dropped slightly, then recovered. The global economy is back ‘on track’ to further warming. The 2021 IPCC report warns that climate change is accelerating, changing even faster than we thought.

The window of opportunity is nearly closed. Many scientists no longer believe we can halt warming at 1.5°C, but it is worth every effort, to ensure a liveable future for us all. Political commitment and action, both internationally and in SA, is still too weak, despite all the dire warnings, and despite all the right words.

Africa (along with South East Asia) will bear the brunt of many impacts, even though this continent only produces about 3% of total global carbon dioxide emissions (half of this comes just from South Africa, the 15th biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world). Climate change is a global phenomenon: greenhouse gases produced in one continent create havoc around the globe. Likewise, impacts in one region have knock-on effects elsewhere.

Climate change exacerbates human-caused land and ecosystem degradation, through general warming and drying, and extreme heat, rainfall, fire and storm events. The unique fynbos biome is at risk of serious degradation. Sea level rise and rising cyclone intensity are causing flooding and coastal erosion.

Photo: M. Kassier

Oceans, which absorb most of the heat, and much of the carbon dioxide, are also experiencing more frequent and intense heat waves. Together with changes in water currents and chemistry, this creates so-called ‘dead zones’, harms marine life and destroys valuable ecosystems like corals, kelp forests and seagrass meadows.

Africa already faces many social challenges (such as poverty, diseases, lack of infrastructure, various legacy effects of colonisation). Climate change places a heavy extra burden on this continent, reducing food and water security, affecting health, increasing poverty, conflict and migration, and further weakening already sluggish economies.

Climate change problems are often conflated in cities, especial coastal cities with high levels of informal development.

Photo: Enviromap

At this point you may be asking, “Is there any hope? Are there any positive messages at all?”

Is there hope?

There are indeed reasons for hope. But let us be clear: messages of hope involve action.

ACTION = HOPE

INACTION = NO HOPE

The 2018 IPCC report concluded, “Every bit of warming matters. Every year matters. Every choice matters.” One can add, “Every individual matters.”

In fact, many people, once they understand the danger and urgency, ask “What can I do?” or “Is there anything I can do?”

The answer is a resounding “Yes!” as 72% of greenhouse gases come down to decisions made by individuals like you and me. “Then what can I do?” To respond to this very question, we put together a booklet called What I can do about climate change.

The booklet describes simple actions that make a big difference quickly, such as how to slash your electricity and fuel usage (and at the same time spend less), or what consumer and food related decisions or housing arrangements are most climate friendly.

It is no longer enough to turn the lights off or recycle. We need to be doing many things at once, things that make a big difference, quickly: (1) cut our ‘carbon footprint’ by half over the next few years, and then get it down to zero soon after, (2) start investing in renewable energy for the long term (by installing solar or wind power and through our financial investments), and (3) start mopping up the carbon dioxide we have produced already, for instance, by planting trees (indigenous). The booklet has a long checklist of effective climate actions.

Of course, individuals alone cannot solve the problem of climate change. Governments, industries, economies, sectors, entire societies need to change too, and there are signs of hope.

Signs of hope

One is the proven ability for societies to change rapidly and fundamentally and even rapidly. When scientists revealed that certain chemicals were creating a dangerous hole in the ozone layer, the governments of the world put in place policies to stop this danger, and now the the ozone hole is healing. The Covid-19 pandemic forced society to respond, to cooperate, change, invest funds, etc. These responses have not come without their own costs, but it does show that it is indeed possible to change the course of history, more or less overnight.

Can climate change unify the world into positive response likewise? There are hopeful signs. We are seeing social tipping points in terms of climate action that are very encouraging. All over the world people, especially the youth, are demanding climate action like never before. They are influencing governments. Policies are beginning to change. And this effect seems to be accelerating.

An interesting session at the recent Innovation 4 Cities conference explained how the status quo can be toppled, how regime shifts (changes in the ‘business as usual’) happen when enough forces are pushing in the same direction: landscape forces (e.g. mega-trends, culture, world events, economic forces), regime forces (e.g. leaders and policy makers inside governments and business), and niche forces (e.g. social and technical innovators, activists, margins of the mainstream with no vested interest in the status quo). There is hope, because many forces seem to be coming together at the moment, that can force the necessary changes.

Since climate change and other societal problems like poverty, political instability, conflict and human rights violations are often part of the same fundamental problem, things that are good for the climate also tend to be good for nature and for people. Instead of trying to decide which problem to address first, it is possible to address many problems at once. Many responses to climate change can make significant progress towards reaching the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, and make the world a better, more equitable place than it was before.

For example, the rapid global deployment of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, can benefit not only high income folks, such as this home in Kloof, but can can help low-income countries to have energy access (often for the first time), with the enormous economic and general wellbeing benefits these technologies bring. Renewable energy options have become much more affordable, and initial investment pays off within a few years, and thereafter yield absolute financial returns.

Urban solutions, such as green and blue infrastructure (involving vegetation and natural water bodies, such as the dune restoration in Durban, shown in this photo), electrified public transport, or circular economy principles, also have a huge potential to make cities more liveable and healthier places than they have ever been before.

The health and wellbeing benefits of moving away from fossil fuels and fire energy, in terms of air quality and fire hazard, are huge. It is estimated that the financial health benefits could far outweigh the cost of meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement.

The many real, proven techniques in conservation agriculture (farming without harming nature or farming ‘with nature’) can simultaneously improve agricultural yields, provide new income sources, reduce hunger and poverty, improve soil and ecosystem quality, support biodiversity, improve water security, restore degraded land, and even return agricultural land to nature.

This is an amazing example how rainwater harvesting, by digging pits, can create grazing, even in a semi-arid, degraded landscape, like this farmland near Graaff Reinet.

Photo: Herding Academy

Agroforestry, reforestation (and even in certain cases, afforestation) also have co-benefits: micro-climate (local humidity and temperature, soil moisture), even macro-climate regulating effects (wind speed, regional rainfall); ecosystem strengthening; greater water and food security; income opportunities; economic benefits, etc.

Photo: Marco Schmidt

The Paris Agreement commits high income countries to financial support and technology transfer to developing countries, supporting equity and justice at a global level. Hopefully, as the signs and symptoms of climate change get clearer and stronger, and climate action is gaining momentum, low income countries will have a better negotiating power to leverage a fair share in the global economy.

We also see signs of change and hope in the corporate world. While unbridled capitalism may underlie many of the environmental crises we face, it may turn out to be a critical driver of solutions. When it becomes profitable to be ‘green’, even the largest corporations can change. Large energy companies are actively increasing the proportion of renewable sources of energy in their portfolios. Mines, such as gold or copper mines, facing pressure over the environmental impacts of their operations, are increasingly turning to renewable energy, both to improve their public image and worker safety. Public or consumer pressure is driving many of these changes, including the development and uptake of electric vehicles, even in South Africa.

Insurance companies globally are struggling to calculate the changing risk scenarios with increasing climate change, to the point where some risks are either unaffordable or uninsurable. As a result, insurance companies are having to rethink risky, carbon-intensive investments, and find innovative ways to help clients mitigate risk (i.e., adapting to climate risk) – which in some cases, involves taking action against climate change.

Where to from here?

The question is not, ‘Can I make a difference?’, but ‘Are enough of us doing what we can, adding pressure, in our sphere of influence?’ If so, then there is indeed hope. The more of us do what we can, the more inevitable a big shift becomes. And as more and more people are adding their weight, hope grows.

There is hope, … IF we act. I hear some of you saying, “People won’t act.” We are the people. We can act, and we can spread the word. The last section in the What I can Do About Climate Change booklet encourages us all to pass on the message, petition and vote for change, put pressure on our employers and government to make the right choices, and lead by example.

Our family is not yet doing enough, despite all that I know about climate change. At home we are applying various electricity and fuel saving methods, eat a low-meat diet, buy as little ‘stuff’ as possible, and we have got as far as getting a quote for a solar system. Now we need to make the investment, and strive further towards a climate-friendly lifestyle.

I have been pondering the fact that we make countless daily investments of time, energy and finances, for our children’s future, such as their education or health. And yet, what investments are we making towards a liveable world for them to inherit? Also, we make investments for our own retirement, but do we consider what world we are retiring into?

It is those of us who have the most, and spend the most, who are most responsible for climate change. The more we have, the more we spend, the more we can do to reduce climate change.

It is up to our generation, not the next one.
It is for now, not for later.
It is for our children, not someone else’s.
It’s for right here, not for some other place.
And it can be done, but only if we do it.

Note

The author is a Science officer in the Durban office of the Working Group II (WGII) Technical Support Unit (TSU) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations organisation that assesses and reports on the current state of climate change science, and provides governments with information on response options and their consequences. The Durban office is led by Debra Roberts, who was nominated to represent the Global South as Co-Chair in the IPCC WGII on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Many thanks for reviewing the article, to Andrew Okem (Science Officer, IPCC WGII TSU); Nina Hunter, Michelle North (Post-Doctoral Fellows, UKZN); Debra Roberts (Co-Chair, IPCC WGII)

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are purely those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency of the IPCC.

About the author

Marlies Craig is an epidemiologist who used to research malaria, but now works for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Though she did originally study Biology and Entomology, her love affair with insects is very personal. In her book What Insect Are You? – Entomology for Everyone, she shares that passion with young and old, see whatinsectareyou.com. She hopes to kindle in people of all ages enthusiasm and a deeper appreciation of nature and show them why and how they can make a difference. She recently started a non-profit organisation called EASTER Action focussing on education and action in biodiversity, climate change, and sustainable living, see EASTERaction.org. At this time, EASTER Action is distributing a Covid-19 information booklet to help spread useful information and urge people to do what they can to overcome this crisis.